Generally, it is believed that by-elections are won by the parties that are in the government. A victory of a candidate from a party not in government is considered a rare occasion. Electoral history shows it is not that rare.

Since 2008, when Pakistan’s largest domestic election observer group, FAFEN, began observing elections, Pakistan has held over 370 by-elections. In about a quarter (96) of these contests, the winning candidate was from a party not in government or was an independent.

Below is a tenure-wise breakdown of the outcomes of by-elections.

By-Elections during PPPP-Led Federal Government (2008-2013)

During this period, the Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) led coalition governments at the center, in Sindh, and in Balochistan, and was part of Awami National Party (ANP)-led ruling coalition in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Punjab was governed by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).

A total of 126 by-elections – 37 for national and 89 for provincial constituencies – were held during these five years. As many as 43 (or 34 percent) of them were won by either independents or parties not in government in the federation or in the respective province where the election was taking place.

By-Elections during PML-N-Led Federal Government (2013-2018)

During this period, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) led the federal and Punjab governments and was in a coalition with National Party (NP) in Balochistan. PPPP governed Sindh, while an alliance of PTI and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) ruled Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

A total of 103 by-elections – 36 for national and 67 for provincial constituencies – were held during these five years. As many as 27 (26 percent) of them were won by either independents or parties not in government in the federation or in the respective province where the election was taking place.

By-Elections during PTI-Led Federal Government (2018-2022)

During this period, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) led coalition governments at the center and in Punjab, and governed Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. PPPP ruled Sindh, and the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) led the government in Balochistan.

A total of 63 by-elections – 19 for national and 44 for provincial constituencies – were held during these five years. As many as 16 (25 percent) of them were won by either independents or parties not in government in the federation or in the respective province where the election was taking place.

By-Elections during PDM Federal Government (2022-2023)

During this period, the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition with PML-N and PPPP as senior partners governed at the center. Sindh, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa continued to be ruled by PPPP, BAP, and PTI, respectively. Punjab saw alternating governments of PTI and PML-N until the Assembly’s dissolution.

A total of 37 by-elections – 13 for national and 24 for provincial constituencies – were held. As many as 21 (57 percent) of them were won by either independents or parties not in government in the federation or in the respective province where the election was taking place.

By-Elections Since GE-2024

Following General Elections 2024, PML-N leads the coalition federal government and governs Punjab. It is also a senior partner with PPPP in the Balochistan coalition. PPPP governs Sindh, and PTI rules Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Since February 2024, a total of 43 by-elections – 14 for national and 29 for provincial constituencies – have been held. As many as five (12 percent) of them were won by candidates representing parties not in government.