In the general elections of 8 February 2024 (GE-2024), two of 61 contested National Assembly (NA) constituencies in Sindh returned results where the number of rejected ballots exceeded the margin of victory between the winning candidate and the runner-up. This represents 3.3 percent of all Sindh NA seats — a sharp decline from GE-2018, when 11 constituencies (18 percent) recorded this condition, and the lowest figure recorded in Sindh across five elections since 2002.
What the Numbers Show
Across five general elections since 2002, Sindh has recorded 23 NA constituencies where rejected ballots exceeded the winning margin. The province’s trajectory is marked by two notable features: the only zero recorded in the entire dataset — no Sindh NA constituency recorded this condition in GE-2008 — and the highest provincial peak in GE-2018, when 11 of 61 constituencies (18 percent) returned results where rejected ballots exceeded the winning margin. In GE-2002 and GE-2013, five constituencies (8.2 percent) recorded this condition in each election. The sharp rise to 11 in GE-2018 and the equally sharp fall to two in GE-2024 represent the most volatile trend in the provincial dataset. Whether the GE-2024 figure marks a sustained improvement or a single-cycle reduction requires examination across subsequent elections.
What the Numbers Do Not Establish
The figures do not, on their own, explain either the spike in GE-2018 or the near-elimination of the condition in GE-2024. Whether these movements reflect changes in constituency-level competitiveness, polling station administration, or voter behaviour requires constituency-level analysis. The two constituencies recorded in GE-2024 warrant individual examination — of the grounds on which ballots were rejected, the consistency of invalidation across polling stations within each constituency, and whether rejection rates fell within the normal range for that constituency and election. The ECP may use its powers under Section 8(b) of the Elections Act, 2017 to conduct such an exercise, which could inform its future voter education campaigns and highlight any unique patterns of rejection with a bearing on election outcomes. FAFEN’s constituency-level data series, drawing on Form 49 records, is intended to support precisely that analysis.
What Is the Margin of Victory?
The margin of victory is the numerical difference between the votes secured by the winning candidate and the votes secured by the candidate who finished second. It is the gap that separates a seat won from a seat lost. In closely contested constituencies, this margin may be a few hundred — or even a few dozen — votes.
What Are Rejected Ballots?
A rejected ballot is a ballot paper excluded from the vote count. Polling staff identify and set aside such ballots during the counting process at the polling station. The Returning Officer (RO) then reviews these determinations during the consolidation of results, and the ballot is formally rejected only after that scrutiny. Pakistani electoral procedure specifies four grounds for rejection: the ballot does not bear the presiding officer’s official stamp and signature; it carries any mark or writing beyond the Assistant Presiding Officer’s (APO) official seal and signature; an extraneous paper or material is attached to it; or the voting mark falls simultaneously in the boxes of two candidates in a way that makes it impossible to determine which candidate the voter intended to select.
Rejection does not automatically indicate fraud or deliberate misconduct. Voter error — including accidental double-marking or stamps placed outside the designated box — accounts for a documented share of rejections in every election.
