In the general elections of 8 February 2024 (GE-2024), 24 of 140 contested National Assembly (NA) constituencies in Punjab returned results where the number of rejected ballots exceeded the margin of victory between the winning candidate and the runner-up. This represents 17 percent of all Punjab NA seats. Election in one constituency was postponed due to the death of a candidate. Punjab has consistently recorded the largest absolute number of such constituencies of any province in every election since 2002.
What the Numbers Show
Across five general elections since 2002, Punjab has recorded 119 NA constituencies where rejected ballots exceeded the winning margin — the highest cumulative total of any province in the country. The figure has fluctuated across electoral cycles without a consistent directional trend. In GE-2002, 25 of 148 Punjab NA constituencies — 16.9 percent — recorded rejected ballots above the winning margin. This rose to 30 constituencies (20.3 percent) in GE-2008, before falling to 15 constituencies (10.1 percent) in GE-2013 — the lowest proportion recorded in the province across the five elections. The figure rose again to 25 constituencies (17.7 percent) in GE-2018, and has remained at a comparable level in GE-2024 at 24 constituencies (17 percent). The absence of a sustained downward trend across the five cycles indicates that the conditions generating ballot rejection at levels above the winning margin have not been systematically addressed in the province.
What the Numbers Do Not Establish
The figures do not, on their own, explain what drives rejection rates above the margin of victory in any individual constituency. Whether the pattern reflects geographic concentration in specific districts, polling station-level inconsistencies in the application of rejection criteria, or voter behaviour requires constituency-level analysis. The 24 constituencies recorded in GE-2024 warrant individual examination — of the grounds on which ballots were rejected, the consistency of invalidation across polling stations within each constituency, and whether rejection rates fell within the normal range for that constituency and election. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) may use its powers under Section 8(b) of the Elections Act, 2017 to conduct such an exercise, which could inform its future voter education campaigns and highlight any unique patterns of rejection with a bearing on election outcomes. FAFEN’s constituency-level data series, drawing on Form 49 records, is intended to support precisely that analysis.
What Is the Margin of Victory?
The margin of victory is the numerical difference between the votes secured by the winning candidate and the votes secured by the candidate who finished second. It is the gap that separates a seat won from a seat lost. In closely contested constituencies, this margin may be a few hundred — or even a few dozen — votes.
What Are Rejected Ballots?
A rejected ballot is a ballot paper excluded from the vote count. Polling staff identify and set aside such ballots during the counting process at the polling station. The Returning Officer (RO) then reviews these determinations during the consolidation of results, and the ballot is formally rejected only after that scrutiny. Pakistani electoral procedure specifies four grounds for rejection: the ballot does not bear the presiding officer’s official stamp and signature; it carries any mark or writing beyond the Assistant Presiding Officer’s (APO) official seal and signature; an extraneous paper or material is attached to it; or the voting mark falls simultaneously in the boxes of two candidates in a way that makes it impossible to determine which candidate the voter intended to select.
Rejection does not automatically indicate fraud or deliberate misconduct. Voter error — including accidental double-marking or stamps placed outside the designated box — accounts for a documented share of rejections in every election.
